Hardly a revelation but the Western Burbs' favourite spruiking duo have just issued their latest "Market Update" in which they shamelessly deny the market is weak -- in fact "it's quite the opposite" -- they then support this thesis by trotting out some spurious theory to illustrate why the market's never been hotter. Apparently, the fewer listings in Q1'11 versus Q1'10 mean that the supply/demand balance heavily favours sellers:
"..with such little competition in the market ... if you're thinking of selling, now might be the best time to do so."
Personally, I'm willing to take the other side of that. What is true, however, is this -- if you have to sell anytime in the next year or two you'd be better off doing it now and taking the first vaguely sensible offer. Putting it off in the hope of a recovery in the coming months is likely to seriously damage your wealth, particularly if you're already 'committed elsewhere'. If you don't need to sell at all, don't waste your time. Take holiday, consider a new hair-style , take up a hobby -- do anything but worry about the value of your property.
The Housing Finance figure from the ABS on April 6th was awful -- the lowest in 32 years. This follows three months of low commitments. First home buyer commitments have fallen off a cliff. This does not bode well, to put it mildly. What is going to stem the current weakness in property? The goverment stepping in with new incentives? Unlikely -- there's a danger that even drawing attention to the weakness would precipitate a sharper fall. Will the RBA reverse direction? I'm not sure -- depends on Glenn Stevens' willingness to eat humble pie. It would be an admission of failure on his part and he strikes me as some who's quite strongwilled. Once he's made a decision etc.....
A fullblown crisis might be a game-changer, though. We won't have that long to wait to find out.
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